Curated by Gurdeep Singh, Amritsar, Punjab
A.P. Moller-Maersk raised its 2026 earnings outlook for a third time on Thursday, as elevated container freight rates and capacity constraints lifted its latest quarterly performance. The Danish shipping group now expects underlying EBITDA of $14.0 billion to $14.5 billion, up from its previous $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion range. It lifted its underlying EBIT forecast to $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion from $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion.
The upgrade followed a strong third quarter. Maersk reported EBITDA of $4.7 billion and EBIT of $3.3 billion, while revenue increased 27% year on year to $18.1 billion. The company said global container demand grew between 2% and 4% year on year during the quarter, and it continues to expect full-year container market volume growth of around 4%.
Congestion pushed freight rates higher
Severe weather in Asia and longer port waiting times absorbed ship capacity, supporting higher freight prices. Maersk said average spot rates measured by the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index were 46% higher in the third quarter than in the second. Its vessels operated at full capacity, with demand exceeding available space on some routes.
Maersk’s logistics and services business grew revenue by 13% and lifted its EBIT margin to 5.8%. Its terminals business also recorded its highest revenue to date. In ocean shipping, steady volumes and stronger rates helped earnings, although congestion also increased fuel, network and container-handling costs.
Higher prices, not more cargo, drove the upgrade
The outlook increase reflects pricing and constrained shipping capacity more than a surge in cargo volumes. Reuters reported that ocean volumes were largely flat year on year even as freight rates rose sharply. Shares fell about 11% after the announcement, with analysts saying the upgrade had been anticipated and pointing to a third-quarter profit miss against expectations.
That distinction matters for the durability of the earnings outlook. If port congestion eases, more vessels enter service, or shipping lines return more routes to the Suez Canal, the supply of effective capacity could improve and put pressure on freight rates. Maersk has begun a gradual return to the route, while continuing to cite geopolitical and operational uncertainty.
What the update signals for global trade
As one of the world’s largest container carriers, Maersk’s results offer a timely indicator of shipping conditions and trade flows. The company described global demand as resilient, with industrial shipments linked to electrification, energy investment and AI infrastructure adding to cargo demand. At the same time, the quarter shows how disruption and bottlenecks can lift shipping costs even when cargo volumes are not accelerating at the same pace.
The company’s new guidance assumes global container market volume growth of around 4% for 2026. Its earnings remain sensitive to freight rates, fuel prices, exchange rates and the pace at which capacity constraints unwind; the current outlook therefore reflects market conditions that could change through the rest of the year.
Sources: Reuters; Maersk Q3 2026 update.
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